In the last week of April 2022, the Emergencies Partnership will host two interactive Table top Exercises (TTX) focussing on the scenario of a heatwave.
As we look to build capability and emergency response preparedness, it is vital we consider what crises we may start to see more of over the coming months and years, with heatwaves expected to be one of them. These events (26 April 2022 - South West and South East, and 27 April 2022 - North, Midlands, East, and London) will aim to help build relationships and allow organisations to understand each other’s capabilities.
Last month, the Met Office updated its heatwave thresholds so that eight counties in England will have to reach a degree higher than previously before hot weather can be described as a heatwave. The Met Office defines a heatwave as when an area experiences temperatures meeting or exceeding a pre-determined temperature for three or more consecutive days.
In Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire, the threshold has been raised to 28˚C from 27˚C.
In Lincolnshire, the threshold has been raised to 27˚C from 26˚C.
In East Riding of Yorkshire, the threshold has been raised to 26˚C from 25˚C.
Heatwave thresholds are based on analysis of the climate during a certain period, which acts as a reference. The previous thresholds used data from 1981 to 2010, however the Met Office will now compare temperatures relative to the years from 1991 to 2020.
The Head of the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre, Dr Mark McCarthy, said: “climate statistics over time reveal an undeniable warming trend for the UK.”
Although heatwaves are extreme weather events, research shows that climate change is making these events more likely. A scientific study by the Met Office into the Summer 2018 heatwave in the UK showed that it was 30 times more likely to occur now than in 1750 because of the higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, heatwaves of similar intensity are projected to become even more frequent, perhaps occurring as regularly as every other year.”
But why are more frequent heatwaves an issue for the Emergencies Partnership?
In March 2022, joint research from the University of Reading, University College London and the Met Office showed a “42% increase in mortality risk during summer heat extremes is already expected by 2˚C global warming,” with the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change saying just days ago that “the window to keep 1.5˚C in reach is closing fast”. As temperatures, and therefore the risk of heatwaves continues to rise, the risks to public health appear to also rise, and this is why it is something, as the Emergencies Partnership, we need to prepare for.
The government’s Heatwave Plan for England also states that all year round, Commissioners of Health and Social Care and local authority Directors of Public Health, should be “engaging the community and voluntary sector to support development of local community emergency plans”, and that between June and September every year, they should “continue to engage the community and voluntary sector to support communities to help those most at risk.” It also explains that when the temperature reached in one or more Met Office National Severe Weather Warning Service regions causes heatwave action to be needed, they should “mobilise community and voluntary support.” Therefore, as a sector, it is important that we know the best way that those in our communities can be supported when we experience these extreme weather events.
Our upcoming TTX will allow the voluntary and community sector to be as prepared as possible, knowing the connections to call on when needed and the capabilities of other organisations. This will reduce the effects on the most vulnerable and in extreme cases, hopefully reduce severe illness and mortalities. It also means that when the sector is called upon by local authorities, plans are already in place, and we know the most effective way to respond.
Agenda for the exercise
Work through how we build a shared understanding of the capabilities of VCS organisations typically responding in an emergency
Bring together community intelligence and emergency response to improve communication and coordination to support those most impacted by emergencies.
To do this we will focus on the following elements and ask you to consider these in relation to the scenario background text below:
How we identify and understand need
What information is available to build a picture of those likely to require support; are there data and insights which can inform this; who are our disproportionately impacted or underserved communities and how are they affected?
How we shape and understand offers of support
Who can assist (or is already active in responding), how are offers coordinated and connected to avoid duplication, are the people offering/responding best placed?
How we understand the information flow.
There will be multiple sources of information, some coming from communities, some coming out of LRFs. How is this effectively shared to inform all parties without increasing safeguarding or data protection risks?
As key VCS response organisations you are asked to consider the following questions prior to the exercise. You may be asked to share your responses in the exercise:What will be my route to securing accurate and timely information?
What public service agencies should I be able to liaise with, and how?
What services can my organisation deliver to help in this crisis?
What other organisations can I collaborate with locally, who do I need to reach out to collaborate; and how?
If you are interested in attending, please register below:
South West and South East - Tuesday 26 April, 10:00 am - 11:30 am https://britishredcross.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEtcuitqz0sG9DAPyLf7a2PagJpyKQhQ2HZ
North, Midlands, East, and London - Wednesday 27 April, 10:00 am - 11:30 am https://britishredcross.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwoceGrpzMpH9KuNVLW7yTbdTvZfS2V0VLp
(If you are a national organisation and so not based in a particular region, please register for either of the above events.)